RADIO
Let’s face it, the St. Louis Rams don’t exactly boast the flashiest offense in the NFL. Between the derailment of the Tavon Austin hype train and an unexpected quarterback carousel, the Rams have been nothing more than forgettable since the start of last season. That being said, the team’s ground game is a major point of interest for 2015 between rookie Todd Gurley and sophomore Tre Mason.
Offseason Acquisitions: QB Nick Foles, RB Todd Gurley
No Longer on the Roster: QB Sam Bradford, RB Zac Stacy
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Quarterback
The St. Louis Rams pulled the trigger on a surprising move in dealing Sam Bradford to the Philadelphia Eagles for Nick Foles. When healthy, Foles put up solid numbers in Philly under Head Coach Chip Kelly. In 2013, Foles racked up 27 touchdowns with just two interceptions. However, he basically fell off a cliff in 2014 due to injuries. A huge portion of the success he had in 2013 can be attributed to the offensive scheme used by the Eagles with Kelly at the helm. The Eagles have been an impressive offense in the two years since hiring Kelly so it’s not all that surprising the team yielded fantasy relevant players at every position.
It’s difficult to envision Foles attaining that same level of success in a much less potent offense with fewer weapons around him. While I don’t think there’s any true fantasy value to be had for Foles, at the very least we have the luxury of being able to identify him as a clear starter, even if it is on a team that lacks offense. Barring a highly unexpected return to his 2013 form, I wouldn’t put any stock into Foles from a fantasy perspective.
Wide Receivers
Remember that Tavon Austin fellow? Turns out, he’s actually still lurking around on the Rams roster. Every year some big-name rookie gets talked up like he’s a fantasy savior before he ever has the chance to prove himself. Austin was one of those players into the 2013 NFL season but it just never panned out the way many expected it would. In his 28 games as an NFL player, Austin has only exceeded 100 receiving yards in a game once. Throw in a 2014 campaign in which he scored a grand total of zero touchdowns and you’re looking at a receiver who isn’t anything more than false hype. That’s not to say he’s not a talented NFL player but if the production isn’t there then there’s just no way to consider him for fantasy purposes.
The Rams have also utilized a random assortment of mediocre wide receivers over the last few years, none of which have ended up standing out. The most recent addition to the team was that of Kenny Britt last offseason. Britt joined the likes of Brian Quick and Chris Givens, players who could theoretically put up WR2 type of fantasy numbers if they played in an offense beneficial to wide receivers. Unfortunately, that type of offense doesn’t really exist in St. Louis. I suppose if you were looking to identify the number one receiver on this team it’d be Brian Quick but he’s still recovering from shoulder surgery that dates all the way back to last season.
Running Backs
At last we’ve arrived at the most exciting part about the St. Louis offense, the running game. Once Zac Stacy turned out to be a one hit wonder last year, Tre Mason picked up the rushing duties and showed he had enough talent to carry the load. With Stacy finished as the starter, the expectation was that Mason would automatically get the nod, turning him into a trendy RB2 sleeper in most fantasy formats. The Rams then made a surprising move in the NFL draft by selecting Todd Gurley out of Georgia with the 10th pick. Not only is this a head scratcher in terms of personnel but Gurley also tore his ACL in November of his junior season.
Assuming Gurley comes back healthy and effective, Tre Mason’s run as the starting running back is over before it ever really began. Obviously the biggest component of this situation is Gurley’s health. Should he be unable to start week one, Mason will automatically become a low-end RB2/high-end flex play even if it’s only temporary. I actually think that would be a better outcome than if Gurley were to end up healthy enough for the start of the season anyway. Gurley is only 20 years old and is recovering from an injury that is sometimes career altering. The Rams may feel they have enough to be competitive with Mason leading the charge while Gurley is eased into the lineup in order to protect their investment.
Certainly the endgame is to utilize the highly talented Gurley as the feature back but I don’t think this is a situation where the team intends to use a running-back-by-committee years down the line. It may start out like that whenever Gurley is able to return from injury but I wouldn’t put too much stock into it given the circumstances. Gurley is currently ranked as a borderline RB2 while Mason is slotted as a RB4. I think both of those rankings are appropriate given their respective situations but their values could easily change by the time we get an update on Gurley's knee. If he were fully healthy or even just on a team where there wasn’t any competition for carries, he’d be much closer to the mid-teens at the position and Mason can still be considered a sleeper given the current uncertainty regarding Gurley’s health. Pay close attention to this situation as we inch closer to the regular season and presumably receive some useful information.
Rookies and Tight Ends
Offensive lineman don’t get mentioned very often in fantasy articles but I’d like to take this opportunity to applaud the St. Louis Rams for bolstering their O-line considerably via the draft. The team selected four offensive linemen in the 2015 draft, which should improve the offense, specifically the ground game. This is a franchise that has struggled to protect it’s quarterback and establish a strong enough line to sustain a consistent rushing attack. The additions might not produce Pro Bowlers instantly but it’s definitely a step in the right direction.
I’m genuinely curious if there has ever been a tight end who has been tied to the term “sleeper” more than Jared Cook. Cook has been in the league since 2009 and it seems like he’s been surrounded by fantasy hype dating back to his rookie season. I suppose you could view Cook’s 2014 season as a step in the right direction considering he had his highest reception total to date with 52 on 98 targets but he’s going to have to do a lot more than that before I fall for the hype again. He’ll always be an interesting name to keep an eye on given his talent but I’m not exactly itching to roster him.
Conclusion
Hopefully we receive some more clarity about the Rams’ running back situation after Todd Gurley meets with Dr. James Andrews to evaluate his knee. Gurley might actually possess the greatest fantasy value among the big name rookies this season. Given his situation and draft stock, he's the rookie I’m most likely to own this year. That’s just it though, in order for someone to be properly labeled as a “sleeper” or “value pick,” you actually have to acquire him cheaply. Reaching for Gurley negates his sleeper status so don’t get too excited. Let him come to you or let someone else reach. Outside of Gurley and Tre Mason, however, this isn’t a team I’ll be counting on for fantasy production.
