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The Jacksonville Jaguars have been the subject of tons of jokes over the last several years due to their NFL record. Luckily for them, their offense seems to be headed in the right direction as the team continues to add young new pieces. Between Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, and the recently acquired Julius Thomas and T.J. Yeldon, the Jaguars might not be as terrible as we’ve grown accustomed to.
Offseason Acquisitions: TE Julius Thomas, WR Rashad Greene
No Longer on the Roster: WR Cecil Shorts, RB Jordan Todman
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Quarterback
Jacksonville stunned everyone in the 2014 draft when they selected Blake Bortles third overall, making him the first QB taken in that year’s draft. Since then, Bortles has put together a decent enough rookie season where the Jaguars are willing to continue to see what they have in him. Bortles finished the year with 2,908 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. The numbers aren’t great by any means but he's still the best quarterback they have. The most important thing to remember about Bortles as it pertains to fantasy is that he’s a serviceable and competent enough quarterback to run the Jacksonville offense. He’s by no means a fantasy starter in any format so all we need to worry about is whether or not he’s good enough to get the ball to the key playmakers on offense, which he is.
Wide Receivers
The Jaguars have had a whole host of young wide receivers come in and out of Jacksonville over the last few years. The most relevant name had been Cecil Shorts but he has since moved on to Houston. Shorts aside, Jacksonville ended up with not one, not two, but three rookie wide receivers on their roster last year. The players in question included a pair of second round draft picks in Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson as well as undrafted rookie Allen Hurns. Each of these three receivers put up flashy numbers at various points of the season without any one of them breaking out as the true go-to guy for Blake Bortles. With Shorts gone, the expectation is that Lee and Robinson will be the two primary wide receivers with reports out of camp suggesting that Robinson is emerging as the bigger playmaker. OTA reports in June are often hard to rely in since it’s still really early but any indication of separation between these two receivers is a plus. Robinson missed six games last year as opposed to three for Marqise Lee, however even in limited playing time Robinson put up better numbers. Robinson had 48 receptions on 81 targets for 548 yards versus Lee’s 37 receptions on 68 targets and 422 yards. It’s clear that Bortles looked for Robinson more and Robinson did more with his targets. Robinson is currently ranked at what would translate to a WR4 but I’d expect his average draft position to rise as we get closer to the start of the season. He possesses legit upside given both his talent and the amount of times we expect the Jaguars to have to throw the ball. In looking at the rankings, he might already be under ranked as it is as.
Running Backs
Remember the Toby Gerhart hype from last year? That was fun huh? A large part of Gerhart’s ineffectiveness was attributed to his health and the inability of the Jaguars to establish any sort of run game at all. That became slightly moot once Denard Robinson strung together a few productive games in a row. Robinson had a solid four game stretch where he amassed a total of 389 yards and four touchdowns. It was a nice little streak for Robinson who had been kind of forgotten about by all but one Rotoballer writer last year. The stretch was an indication that this team could actually run the ball effectively in spurts but Robinson’s luck ran out shortly after.
Prior to the 2015 NFL draft, there was speculation as to whether or not the Jaguars would be willing to commit to Denard Robinson as their starter. Once the draft arrived and the Jaguars selected T.J. Yeldon in round two, that question was answered. Every report in regard to Yeldon suggests the Jags want him to be the primary back from day one and it’s hard to argue with that strategy. As effective as Denard Robinson was, he wasn’t able to hold it for the remainder of the season. It’s not like he was some brand new talent they just discovered either; he’s 26 years old. Yeldon is the fresh young talent the Jagaurs have no reason not to trot out. The tricky part becomes determining his fantasy value. We’ve seen rookie running backs do some incredible things in their first year (Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill, Le’Veon Bell) while others have completely disappointed (I’m looking at you, Bishop Sankey).
Yeldon is currently ranked just outside the top 20 at his position, making him border line RB2 even in a 12 -team league. It’s an appropriate ranking for a rookie when you consider the players ranked around him. For starters, fellow rookies Todd Gurley in St. Louis and Tevin Coleman in Atlanta could easily steal the spotlight as far as first year stardom is concerned. Look, you can comb through the entire running back rankings and make a case-by-case analysis for or against Yeldon along the way but the thing it comes down to is risk. The Jaguars threw far more than they ran last year with 557 passing attempts to just 360 rushes. A lot of that has to due with the fact that they were down and in catch-up mode but that still counts for something. Although we expect the Jacksonville offense to improve, it’s not like Yeldon is suddenly going to turn them into a ground-and-pound team that can sit on the ball. Yeldon should be an ok flex play given the amount of opportunity he’s expected to be given but I wouldn’t reach for him or be super confident with him as my RB2.
Rookies and Tight Ends
T.J. Yeldon is the only rookie of certain value despite the Jaguars selecting two wide receivers in the draft. One of which was FSU WR Rashad Greene, who was Jameis Winston's favorite target in college. Greene is projected to be a solid start-able slot receiver in the NFL and could overtake the job from Marqise Lee sometime in the season if he struggles again. Still, that's unlikely to be a position with a lot of value barring an unexpected amount of development with the Jacksonville offense.
That leaves new tight end Julius Thomas. Thomas leaves a potent offense in Denver where he caught balls from Peyton Manning to a much weaker offense run by Blake Bortles in Jacksonville. Should you expect Thomas’s touchdown total of 12 to repeat in Jacksonville? Absolutely not. I think seven or eight is a more likely number. Thomas is no longer an elite fantasy tight end but rather a guy to group in with the lower half of the top 10 at the position. Guys like Thomas and Jason Witten could be serviceable throughout the entire season but there’s just too much sameness among that group to differentiate them. I’d be fine with Thomas as my starting TE if I’m waiting to draft one but at that point I’d rather just wait another two or three rounds and grab someone like Zach Ertz.
The offense in Jacksonville should continue to improve by a decent enough margin this year. No one expects points in bunches but the team should be a bit more respected than it has been in years past. Allen Robinson, T.J. Yeldon, and Julius Thomas are all options to consider late in your draft but I definitely wouldn’t advocate reaching for any one of them. Let them come to you.
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