RADIO
It wasn’t that long ago that the Houston Texans were a trendy pick to make the AFC Championship game with some even projecting a Super Bowl appearance. It’s been a long time since and the only true piece remaining in Houston is running back Arian Foster. If anything, the team’s drop in real-life hype has made this team’s fantasy production a hell of a lot easier to navigate.
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Cecil Shorts III, WR Nate Washington, RB Chris Polk, and QB Brian Hoyer
No Longer on the Roster: WR Andre Johnson, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
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Quarterbacks
This section isn’t going to be pretty folks so let’s make it a quick one. The Houston Texans decided to forego selecting a quarterback in the 2014 draft, resulting in the odd couple pairing of Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett for 2015. The veteran Hoyer is currently projected to be the starter despite only having one season as a full-time passer under his belt. 2014 was Hoyer’s only year as anything more than a bench player, finishing the year with 3,326 yards and 12 touchdowns in 14 starts for the Cleveland Browns. His interceptions actually exceeded his touchdowns at 13.
The Browns offense as a whole was pretty much a dumpster fire anyway so it’s not like Hoyer’s numbers should be taken as the end-all of his potential. Here’s all you need to know: Hoyer can do enough to get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins and prevent Arian Foster from getting destroyed in the backfield. He’s a competent enough NFL player who just so happened to luck into a starting gig. That doesn’t make him useless; it just makes this team’s QB situation fantasy irrelevant. Moving right along…
Wide Receivers
With the Andre Johnson era finished in Houston, the Texans will turn to third-year receiver DeAndre Hopkins to lead the charge. That’s a bit of a misleading opener when you consider the fact that Hopkins actually outplayed Johnson last year even with less targets and receptions. Hopkins finished 2014 with 1,210 yards via 76 receptions and 127 targets compared to 936 yards, 85 receptions, and 147 targets for Johnson. The biggest difference in analyzing the two’s fantasy values from last year would be the fact that Hopkins had the longer average-yards-per catch with 15.7 to Johnson’s 11.0 while also boasting double the touchdowns six to three. The overall takeaway here is this; DeAndre Hopkins managed to turn into a top-15 fantasy wide receiver while technically being the number two receiver on his own team.
With Andre Johnson off to Indianapolis, you can expect a big increase in targets for Hopkins. The only concern is just how effective he can be with Hoyer as the starter and I kind of think this is a situation where the level of the receiver’s talent negates that of the QB. He’s pretty much ranked at exactly WR15 as it is, just ahead the likes of Brandin Cooks and Jordan Matthews, players that have equal amounts of risk and upside anyway. You should feel comfortable with DeAndre Hopkins as your WR2 in any fantasy format.
The most interesting acquisition the Texans made as far as wide receivers are concerned is that of Cecil Shorts III. Shorts has shown that he can produce in spurts during his time as a Jacksonville Jaguar but has had health concerns throughout his career. He’s never put together a full 16 game season nor has he ever cracked 1,000 yards as a member of the Jaguars, a team that you could argue has had equal quarterback play to that of Brian Hoyer over the years. I like Shorts more as an NFL player than I do as a fantasy source so I wouldn’t advocate rostering him in any capacity. It'll be interesting to see if Hoyer could somehow get him involved in the offense more than I expect, thus bumping up his PPR value.
I view the addition of Nate Washington as nothing more than one for depth and a veteran locker room presence now that Andre Johnson is gone.
Running Backs
Yammer all you want about Arian Foster’s age and banged up body but the dude still finished as the fifth best fantasy running back last year despite missing three games. Look, Foster has never been one to boast a clean bill of health so it’s not like I’m going to start telling you his injuries don't matter. But what I will say is that the hate on him has gone a bit too far for my liking. Foster had 1,246 rushing yards last year and eight touchdowns but what often gets overlooked is his 38 receptions for 327 yards. He’s utilized in the passing game enough to pad his rushing numbers. Those 327 receiving yards were the most he’s had since 2011.
The usage might be worrisome for those concerned about injuries but is he really less injury prone than DeMarco Murray? Is he less reliable than C.J. Anderson who’s only been relevant for one season? Foster is rightfully ranked as the first running back behind the big five (Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Le’Veon Bell, and Eddie Lacy). He doesn’t possess the same amount of upside or even consistency as those players do but he’s a far more reliable option than those ranked behind him.
If you’re picking the middle of your draft and want to consider a running back before the likes of Antonio Brown, you should feel confident in Foster and just go out of your way to grab his handcuff in Alfred Blue. 12-13 games of Arian Foster plus a few games of Alfred Blue or even a waiver wire running back is enough to keep you in contention in any fantasy league.
Tight Ends
We’re now two years removed from the departure of tight end Owen Daniels and there hasn’t really been that much noise about a solid replacement just yet. Garrett Graham will be entering his fifth season as a member of the Houston Texans and his second without the presence of Owen Daniels…wait, have I mentioned Brian Hoyer is throwing the ball? Brian Hoyer is throwing the ball.
Rookies
The Texans selected a pair of rookie receivers in the draft in Jaelen Strong out of Arizona State and Keith Mumphrey from Michigan State. There’s been a lot of chatter about Strong as he’s apparently shed 20 pounds this offseason and has impressed in camp. Even with that news, I would apply the same logic as Cecil Shorts; I’m not confident this team can sustain two relevant fantasy wide receivers, let alone three, so I’m taking a wait and see approach on anyone not named DeAndre Hopkins.
Summary
It may sound like I’m being rather harsh on the Houston Texans but the fact of the matter is that this is one of the most straightforward franchises in fantasy. You can ignore both the quarterback and tight end positions with Arian Foster and DeAndre Hopkins being the only two names to consider at running back and wide receiver. Their values are perfect where they stand and should meet expectations.
