RADIO
To say that the Chicago Bears had a disappointing 2014 season would be a massive understatement. In just two short seasons, head coach Marc Trestman went from quarterback guru to “get him out of here, now!” status. The team has even departed with longtime wide receiver Brandon Marshall. You would think the last two years would turn this entire franchise into a black hole for fantasy production but it’s actually not as bad as some would have you believe.
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Kevin White, WR Eddie Royal, RB Jacquizz Rodgers
No Longer on the Roster: WR Brandon Marshall, WR Josh Morgan
New Coaches: HC John Fox, OC Adam Gase, DC Vic Fangio
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Quarterback
After all the hoopla that bled into the offseason surrounding quarterback Jay Cutler, the Bears decided to just stick with what they had, opting not to move their passer. For as much flack as Cutler got in the media, he actually had a decent season last year. Cutler finished with 3,812 yards and 28 touchdowns, good enough to slot him as the 14th best fantasy QB. The biggest knock on Cutler has always been his inconsistency, specifically in relation to his interceptions. With 18 picks in 2014, it’s no wonder that it seems like he performed a lot worse than he actually did.
Another reason why Cutler was somewhat of a letdown last year was because people expected him to develop into a top-10 fantasy QB under Marc Trestman. That never materialized but it’s not like he was abysmal. Cutler was fine and I would expect him to be just that, fine, under John Fox and Adam Gase. Fox and Gase departed a Peyton Manning led offense which saw the Denver Broncos put up record breaking numbers just two short seasons ago. No one should expect Manning’s 2013 numbers for Cutler with 5,477 yards and an insane 55 touchdowns but Cutler should be serviceable. There may be some quarterbacks with higher upside this year like Eli Manning and Ryan Tannehill but Cutler should be viewed as a legit option in deeper or two-QB formats.
Wide Receivers
The departure of Brandon Marshall should warrant one immediate reaction: welcome aboard, Alshon Jeffery! It’s easy to just assume that Jeffery’s 1,133 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns will automatically go up now that Brandon Marshall is gone and you wouldn’t even be wrong in that assumption. Still, Jeffery’s yard total, receptions, and targets actually took a slight dip with Marshall banged up for a decent chunk of the 2014 season. Jeffery should be viewed as a lock to end up as a low-end WR1 in any format but the problem isn’t with him as a player, it’s with the players I’d rather draft ahead of him. Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, and Randall Cobb represent Jeffery’s competition as far as upper-tier fantasy production is concerned. Of all the players listed, you can make the argument that Jeffery has the least upside among them given their respective situations.
Personally, I waiver between Jeffery and T.Y. Hilton as my number 10 receiver this year with the previous nine players firmly ranked ahead of both them. Much like his quarterback Jay Cutler, Jeffery isn’t the flashiest name this year but he’s solid enough given the competition.
Running Backs
Perhaps the most polarizing running back in this year’s top 10 rankings is that of Matt Forte. Forte has been ranked as high as number two overall by some and as low as out of the top-10 completely by others. It’s a strange situation for a back that is coming off his lowest rushing totals in three seasons despite finishing fourth in standard scoring at the position. The fact of the matter is, Forte’s 1,038 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 266 attempts were ridiculously padded by his usage in the passing game. This is probably where the departure of Marc Trestman will hurt the Bears the most; Forte managed to reel in 102 receptions for 808 yards in 2014. That’s 19 more receptions than the second highest running back on the list, Le’Veon Bell (Bell actually had more yards, however, with 858).
Go back a year further to Trestman’s first year as coach in 2013 and you’d notice that Forte actually had his second best year receiving with 594 yards on 74 receptions. If you were to just take the average of Forte’s reception and yard total in the five years prior to Trestman’s arrival, you’d end up with 465 receiving yards on 53 receptions. Those are the numbers to expect with John Fox as coach.
That doesn’t make Forte a non-top-10 running back but it certainly doesn’t warrant him number two overall. In short, Forte will likely take a dip but not enough to discount him entirely. A middle of the top-10 ranking is a much more appropriate for a guy like Forte, especially when you consider names DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy possessing massive upside. Forte is 29, after all, the dreaded age for running backs taking a dive.
Tight Ends
Since his arrival in Chicago in 2013, tight end Martellus Bennett has been a solid fantasy option. Last year alone he reeled in 916 yards for six touchdowns, the highest TD total of his career. Bennett is often ranked in the 5-6 range at the position and while that’s a little high for me, I kind of get it. He’s been reliable in each of his last two seasons so even with Trestman gone, who else would you feel comfortable ranking that high anyway? Julius Thomas on the Jaguars? Even if you lowered him a few spots he’d be in the same category as Jason Witten and Zach Ertz, all players that have just as much upside. If you’re considering Bennett, you’re likely not in a major rush to grab a tight end anyway so if you miss out on him it’s no big deal.
Rookies
One of the most tempting rookies in fantasy this year will be that of wide receiver Kevin White. White was selected number seven overall out of the University of West Virginia, garnering immediate fantasy attention. The pro-argument for White is based on both how high he was drafted and the departure of Brandon Marshall. White was the second receiver off the board behind only Amari Cooper. Even still, Jeffery is obviously locked in as the number one receiver and there are simply too many other rookie receivers in better situations.
Head coach John Fox notoriously holds back rookie WRs, most recently as last year with Cody Latimer not seeing much playing time. It’s likely that Fox will ease White into the offense in his first year before unleashing him in the years to come. Besides, I’d much rather take a chance on someone like DeVante Parker, Breshard Perriman, or Dorial Green-Beckham, all receivers you can wait much longer on who have an easier path to fantasy relevance right away.
Summary
While this offense should take a slight hit with the departure of Marc Trestman, John Fox and Adam Gase are capable of making the Bears fantasy relevant. This team has enough weapons as it is between Jeffery, Forte, and Bennett so don’t expect an immediate surge out of rookie Kevin White. The drama and appeal might not be there anymore but the Chicago Bears are still a fine source of fantasy production.
