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Last month, we brought you RotoBaller's preliminary third base fantasy baseball rankings. The February update is here. We'll be releasing all the other positional rankings updates this week, with analysis from all the RotoBaller writers on their favorite risers and fallers at each MLB position.
Make sure to also check out our MLB Fantasy Baseball Rankings blog, along with all of RotoBaller's third base rankings content.
2015 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings
Brad Johnson (Lead MLB Editor)
Perhaps I was too harsh with Kris Bryant in our first round of rankings. I still advocate a cautious approach with the top prospect, but I can do more to recognize his elite upside. He's moved from 29th to 21st on my personal list, but beware the strikeouts. Bryant may need a few seasons to adjust to major league pitching. Long term, the downside looks something like Pedro Alvarez.
Josh Donaldson is receiving scores of hype, but there's one factor that has me concerned. After suffering through hamstring and hip injuries last season, he'll now play on an artificial surface for over half his games. Turf is linked to joint and muscle injuries, which doesn't bode well for Donaldson. The Blue Jays did install new turf over the offseason, though, so we'll see if that makes a difference.
Kyle Bishop (MLB Writer and Editor)
I still believe in Xander Bogaerts. He endured a horrific slump over the bulk of the summer, but bookended that slump with strong play. I'm higher on him than my colleagues, even at a modest 13th, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he outperforms that. It's absurd on its face that a kid who's only been able to drink legally for a year could be considered a post-hype sleeper, but in the post-Mike Trout world, any top prospect who doesn't immediately set the world on fire sees his stock crash like it's 1929. Don't follow the herd. Get this dude on your team.
Jeff Kahntroff (MLB Writer)
The biggest sleeper at third base may have nothing to do with him exceeding his value; it may come from people failing to realize he's third-base eligible. That player is Chris Davis, who played 21 games at third base last year. The man he replaced at third, Manny Machado, is already healthy, and at only 22 years old, seems as if more power may be on the way. Playing last year at age 21 and often at the bottom of the order, Machado still managed .278/12/38/32 in half a season. By simply moving up in the order and doubling his ABs, you are looking at a potential .278/24hr/90/90 player. After missing spring training and the start of the season, Manny continued to improve throughout the season, with an OPS over .900 in each of his final two months. I have him seventh, but if not for his injury history, I'd have ranked him fifth. He is being selected way too low.
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At some point someone is going to notice that I've ranked Jedd Gyorko ahead of Kris Bryant by almost 10 spots. That's probably something I should address. Part of the move stems from the concerns I shared in January about trusting an untested rookie with a starting job. Remember when Xander Bogaerts was a lock to be a top 10 shortstop? So do I.
I also just flat-out like Gyorko. There are few injuries more debilitating to an athlete than plantar fasciitis, which cost Gyorko dearly in 2014. As any hitter will tell you, power comes from the bottom. By effectively taking his legs out from under him, plantar fasciitis cost Gyorko the 20+ HR power that made him such a threat in 2013. I don't expect this to be the same going forward. A healthy Jedd Gyorko is capable of pairing a league-average batting average with 20-25 home runs. That's a nice thing to have during the course of a long season.
Harris Yudin (MLB Writer and Editor)
Third base is deep in 2015. Outside the top 10, there are a slew of veterans and young guns who can produce. This is why I'd advise not drafting Todd Frazier, at least not as a top 10 third baseman. Frazier might run more than most of the others manning the hot corner, but overall, I don't think he has the tools to be an elite fantasy third baseman. His Steamer-projected 108 wRC+ places him 17th at the position. He has an above-average career K rate and an aging, mediocre lineup around him. Ryan Zimmerman is one name that jumps off the page as a better value than Frazier. Now that he is healthy, Zimmerman can hit close to as many homers as Frazier while knocking in and scoring as many runs and posting a much higher AVG and OBP. You can definitely grab Zimmerman several rounds later than Frazier, but the value should be pretty similar by season's end.
Josh Leonard (MLB Writer)
The most exciting position in fantasy baseball this year has to be third base. I'm not even talking about A-Rod. With prospects like Kris Bryant and Maikel Franco making the jump, and Xander Bogaerts trying to live up to the hype, there's lots of potential. Young stars Anthony Rendon and Todd Frazier are out to prove last year was not a fluke. Nolan Arenado will try to carry the momentum of his strong second half into this season. I predict a major shuffle of third base rankings at the end of the year. Veterans Adrian Beltre, David Wright and Miggy Cabrera are all trending in the wrong direction and could see a dip in production. With that said, Miggy still swings the best bat on the planet and is the clear-cut top 3B.
Let me get weird here for a second: it’s time to recognize Manny Machado as the most attractive man in all of baseball. No lie, his tawny skin tone is breathtaking. I made a mistake ranking him #6, as his boyish good looks alone will translate into top-five 3B status.
Alex Roberts (RotoBaller Co-Founder)
A couple new players have entered the third base rankings this month. Chris Davis, who RotoBaller's own Jeff Kahntroff wrote a great piece on, appears at 11, right ahead of David Wright and Manny Machado. To the surprise of many, Davis played 21 games at third in 2014, making him a nice 3B or CI asset.
The other player, who nary a RotoBaller ranker was inclined to rank, is Alex Rodriguez, aka ARoid. To be honest, I felt my fellow rankers gave A-Rod the fair treatment. I thought it was generous just to give him any spot here, even if it's dead last. Fantasy baseball is about winning, but it's also about rooting for the players you own. That is why I will not own A-Rod in any league this year, anywhere. I don't care if it's a 30-team league with three 3B, I wouldn't own A-Rod. The guy just sucks. Don't go near him, he'll curse your team.
There is a lot of depth at third base, but after Miggy, Donaldson, Rendon and Beltre, not a lot of elite talent. If you don't snag one of those top four, you can pass on relatively expensive options like Nolan Arenado, Kyle Seager, Todd Frazier and Evan Longoria, and wait a handful of rounds for players who will put up very similar stats to that group. The aforementioned Chris Davis is a nice value pick with huge power upside. Josh Harrison, Ryan Zimmerman and Pablo Sandoval can all be drafted four or five rounds later than the more sexy names, and should all be very solid players in 2015. I have nothing against guys like Arenado or Seager, and they are fine picks in rounds five to seven, but my strategy tends to be OF / 1B heavy for the first five rounds. That is where the best players are in 2015. I will be content to draft a Zimmerman or Sandoval if the other guys don't fall to me.
One more sleeper for 2015 whom I like best of all rankers is Pedro Alvarez, who has fallen out of favor after an atrocious 2015. Alvarez is moving to 1B for the Pirates, and while he might only hit vs. RHP, that could be a blessing in disguise for his batting average. He has massive power, and his BB, contact and strikeout rates all improved last year. His HR/FB rate, just 16.2% in 2014, averaged 25.6 % over 1000+ ABs from 2012-2013. Alvarez's power is enormous, and he could put up a line close to 250-30-85 in just 500 AB in 2015.
2015 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings
| Player | BJ | AR | KBr | KBi | JL | JK | HY | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Cabrera (DET - 1B,3B,DH) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Josh Donaldson (TOR - 3B) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.1 |
| Adrian Beltre (TEX - 3B) | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3.6 |
| Anthony Rendon (WSH - 2B,3B) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3.6 |
| Evan Longoria (TB - 3B) | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5.6 |
| Kyle Seager (SEA - 3B) | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 6.0 |
| Todd Frazier (CIN - 3B,1B) | 7 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 8.7 |
| Nolan Arenado (COL - 3B) | 11 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 8.7 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE - C,1B,3B,DH) | 8 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 10.4 |
| Pablo Sandoval (BOS - 3B) | 10 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 11.6 |
| Chris Davis (BAL - 1B,3B) | 15 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 11.4 |
| David Wright (NYM - 3B) | 9 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 11.9 |
| Manny Machado (BAL - 3B) | 22 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 13.1 |
| Ryan Zimmerman (WSH - 3B,LF) | 12 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 11 | 14 | 14.4 |
| Matt Carpenter (STL - 2B,3B) | 13 | 22 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 14.6 |
| Josh Harrison (PIT - 2B,3B,RF,LF) | 14 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 22 | 18 | 15.3 |
| Xander Bogaerts (BOS - 3B,SS) | 16 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 17.9 |
| Aramis Ramirez (MIL - 3B) | 20 | 14 | 23 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 18.6 |
| Kris Bryant (CHC - 3B) | 21 | 21 | 27 | 11 | 17 | 21 | 13 | 18.7 |
| Chase Headley (NYY - 3B) | 18 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 22 | 17 | 20 | 19.1 |
| Brett Lawrie (OAK - 3B) | 17 | 20 | 16 | 21 | 26 | 16 | 22 | 19.7 |
| Pedro Alvarez (PIT - 3B) | 24 | 16 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 24 | 19 | 20.6 |
| Jedd Gyorko (SD - 2B,3B) | 23 | 23 | 19 | 27 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 22.0 |
| Marcus Semien (OAK- 3B) | 19 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 28 | 23 | 29 | 24.0 |
| Martin Prado (MIA - 2B,3B,LF) | 25 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 24 | 25.0 |
| Nick Castellanos (DET - 3B,LF) | 26 | 27 | 25 | 28 | 23 | 26 | 26 | 25.9 |
| Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE - 1B,3B,DH) | 31 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 29 | 30 | 27.4 |
| Mike Moustakas (KAN - 3B) | 28 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 28.3 |
| Trevor Plouffe (MIN - 3B) | 30 | 29 | 31 | 24 | 32 | 25 | 28 | 28.4 |
| Luis Valbuena (CHC - 3B) | 27 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 31 | 29.9 |
| Maikel Franco (PHI - 3B) | 33 | 31 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 31.3 |
| Conor Gillaspie (CHI - 3B) | 29 | 34 | 33 | 29 | 33 | 30 | 34 | 31.7 |
| Alex Rodriguez (NYY - 3B) | NA | 38 | NA | NA | NA | NA | 27 | 32.5 |
| Casey McGehee (SF - 3B) | 32 | 33 | 29 | 34 | 34 | 36 | 35 | 33.3 |
| Chris Johnson (ATL - 1B,3B) | 34 | 36 | 34 | 35 | 31 | 33 | 32 | 33.6 |
| Juan Uribe (LAD - 3B) | 35 | 32 | 35 | 33 | 36 | 34 | 36 | 34.4 |
| Giovanny Urshela | 37 | 36 | 37 | 35 | 35 | 37 | 36.2 | |
| Jacob Lamb (ARI - 3B) | 37 | 35 | 37 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 36.7 |
