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2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Starting Pitcher (SP) - February Update

Last month, we brought you RotoBaller's preliminary starting pitcher fantasy baseball rankings. The February update is here. We'll be releasing all the other positional rankings updates this week, with analysis from all the RotoBaller writers on their favorite risers and fallers at each MLB position.

Make sure to also check out our MLB Fantasy Baseball Rankings blog, along with all of RotoBaller's starting pitcher rankings content
 

2015 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

Brad Johnson (Lead MLB Editor)

You may recall my bullish ranking for Carlos Carrasco in our first release. I've since moved him down the rankings - from fifth to 10th. I still expect great things from Carrasco, I simply felt it was necessary to tweak my adjustments for his short track record.

Deep rotations make certain rankings very difficult. The Indians and Nationals have potentially valuable starting pitchers outside of their starting five. In Cleveland, Danny Salazar, T.J. House, Zach McAllister, and Josh Tomlin are expected to battle for one job. You'll notice I've ranked Salazar and House relatively highly. In Washington, it's Tanner Roark who is left without an immediate role.

 

Kyle Bishop (MLB Writer and Editor)

My early prediction for the biggest bust of 2015: Madison Bumgarner. He's an excellent pitcher, but with that dominant postseason run still fresh in everyone's minds, it will be all but impossible to draft him at a reasonable cost. Even if you hold his rights in a keeper league, his innings total from last season should scare the crap out of you. I've seen a couple mock drafters take him before Clayton Kershaw, which is just...babytown frolics.

 

Kyle Braver (MLB Writer)

There might be no pitcher I enjoy watching more than Jose Fernandez. It's no surprise then that a statement from Marlins GM Dan Jennings saying that the young ace could return as early as June 15th has boosted Fernandez in my rankings. While 100% healthy, he's on my short-list for the top 5 pitchers in the game and the hope of having 3.5 months of that kind of production is enough to push him into my top-30 starting pitchers.

Positive reports about the course of his rehab were also enough to bump Garrett Richards up a spot in my rankings. While it's still early, he could be a very quick riser given a strong spring. I'd monitor him closely.
 
 
Editor’s Note: Looking for a fantasy baseball site for your year-round commissioner redraft, keeper or dynasty league? Check out Fleaflicker.com and host your league there for free.

 

Jeff Kahntroff (MLB Writer)

Max Scherzer took a large leap in my rankings when he landed in possibly the best possible spot: a good NL team in a division with the Phillies and Braves.  Garrett Richards and Cliff Lee likewise climbed the charts due to updated injury reports suggesting speedier recoveries than I anticipated.  Despite moving to the NL in a pitchers’ park, Shields did not experience a large leap due to going from arguably the best outfield defense to possibly the worst.

 

Harris Yudin (MLB Writer and Editor)

I move Adam Wainwright up to number six, and appear to be the only one who still considers him to be an elite starting pitcher. Over the past five seasons, Wainwright has managed a sub-3.00 ERA four of those years, including a career-low 2.38 ERA last year. The strikeouts were a bit down, but he did set career bests in HR/9 and WHIP in 2014. At just 33 years old, he shows no signs of slowing down, and I don't expect him to. Steamer's projection of a 3.38 ERA doesn't make sense to me. He will still be pitching to the best backstop in the game in Yadier Molina, and the Cardinals just brought in 2x Gold Glover Jason Heyward to play right field. Seeing a ranking outside the top 25 is mind-blowing to me, as I think he should be able to maintain elite numbers in 2015.

 

Josh Leonard (MLB Writer)

I think the biggest story this year is going to be the emergence of Gerrit Cole. He is 6’4” 240 lbs and he throws 101 mph fastballs. My Dad thinks the Pirates are going to the World Series, and if Cole turns into an ace, they could. I would rather have Gerrit Cole than Jeff Samardzija, who has a similar skillset and is typically being drafted ahead of Cole. Cole is six years younger and pitching in the National League. Plus, he is taking the Buccos to the World Series.

 

Alex Roberts (RotoBaller Co-Founder)

Starting pitching is the proverbial never ending gold mine of fantasy baseball.  It's not just during the draft either, as each year a solid handful of starters arise out of relative obscurity to be legit contributors on their MLB teams and fantasy squads savvy enough to pick them up.

In our initial starting pitcher rankings for 2015 fantasy baseball, I offered a list of 12 pitchers, all taken well after their draft slot, who returned serious value.  It's obviously tough to predict who these pitchers will be each year, but there are certain categories of players you can target, and others you can avoid.

Who to target

1) Young pitchers who took a skills-based step forward in 2014. Pitchers such as Alex Wood, Gerrit Cole, Tyson Ross, Carlos Carrasco, and Jake Arrieta will all likely be undervalued in most drafts and can return value if taken around pick 100 or later. Garret Richards, Zach Wheeler, and Marcus Stroman also fall into this category but should go at or after pick 150.

2) Injury bounce backs. These starting pitchers are understandably risky, but if you can get them at the right price, they have the opportunity to return enormous value. Cliff Lee (ADP 150), Masahiro Tanaka (ADP 95), Michael Wacha (ADP 156), Mat Latos (ADP 162), Homer Bailey (ADP 181), and Mike Minor (ADP 250) are the most prominent names in this category. By no means should you draft more than 1-2 of these players on any given team, but they can all turn into draft day gold.

3) The pitchers people still don't believe in even after a solid display of skills in 2014. This is by far the largest group, and also offers the most opportunity for draft day alchemy. This group includes pitchers like Danny Salazar, Dallas Keuchel, Colin Mchugh, Scott Kazmir, Mike Fiers, Jose Quintana, Matt Shoemaker, Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, etc, I can go on.  I will be targeting the ones that fall in my drafts.

Who to Avoid

Any pitcher in the first 3 rounds. Any pitcher who had a huge breakout in 2014 and is still the talk of the town, any pitcher showing declining skills for more than a year (think Justin Verlander), and mostly any pitcher that I can't fit into one of the above three categories.

Being able to spot undervalued starting pitchers is perhaps the most important skill to research and practice for your fantasy baseball drafts. Not only does it let you draft pitching gold in the middle and later rounds, it also reduces the pressure to draft a "legit ace" and frees up those high picks for mashers. Always remember that your hitter slots are much harder to fill since they are position specific. Starting pitchers are a dime a dozen in this sense. They are much easier to trade for and away during the season - they are more "liquid" in this sense.

 

2015 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

Player BJ AR KBr KBi JL JK HY JB Composite
Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0
Felix Hernandez (SEA - SP) 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2.3
Chris Sale (CWS - SP) 6 3 4 5 3 6 3 3 4.1
David Price (DET - SP) 4 4 5 4 4 7 8 8 5.5
Corey Kluber (CLE - SP) 3 5 3 2 10 5 13 4 5.6
Max Scherzer (DET - SP) 5 6 6 8 6 4 4 7 5.8
Stephen Strasburg (WSH - SP) 8 7 8 6 5 2 7 6 6.1
Madison Bumgarner (SF - SP) 7 10 15 10 9 8 5 5 8.6
Yu Darvish (TEX - SP) 14 11 7 9 7 10 10 9 9.6
Zack Greinke (LAD - SP) 9 8 9 7 12 11 11 10 9.6
Johnny Cueto (CIN - SP) 13 9 13 22 8 19 9 14 13.4
Jon Lester (CHC - SP) 11 13 11 14 19 12 14 13 13.4
Jordan Zimmermann (WSH - SP) 12 15 12 12 17 9 15 16 13.5
Adam Wainwright (STL - SP) 17 16 10 13 13 27 6 11 14.1
Matt Harvey (NYM - SP) 26 14 14 11 14 16 12 15 15.3
Cole Hamels (PHI - SP) 21 12 16 15 11 21 16 12 15.5
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA - SP) 23 17 17 18 18 20 22 18 19.1
Jeff Samardzija (CWS - SP) 28 27 22 19 20 18 20 21 21.9
James Shields (KC - SP) 22 25 21 20 24 32 19 19 22.8
Alex Cobb (TB - SP) 29 30 18 29 16 17 18 28 23.1
Carlos Carrasco (CLE - SP) 10 18 19 17 43 14 40 33 24.3
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY - SP) 24 21 24 26 31 25 23 23 24.6
Julio Teheran (ATL - SP) 33 23 27 31 15 35 17 17 24.8
Jake Arrieta (CHC - SP) 16 19 20 21 23 31 48 36 26.8
Anibal Sanchez (DET - SP) 27 36 26 24 21 39 27 24 28.0
Gerrit Cole (PIT - SP) 39 22 23 32 32 13 31 32 28.0
Garrett Richards (LAA - SP) 32 39 31 35 22 23 24 26 29.0
Jacob DeGrom (NYM - SP) 18 33 36 34 27 24 34 29 29.4
Cliff Lee (PHI - SP) 55 35 25 16 29 26 29 25 30.0
Alex Wood (ATL - SP,RP) 37 20 40 23 30 33 32 31 30.8
Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD - SP) 20 29 35 27 40 29 28 39 30.9
Tyson Ross (SD - SP) 38 26 34 30 26 34 36 27 31.4
Sonny Gray (OAK - SP) 61 24 28 33 25 36 21 30 32.3
Michael Wacha (STL - SP) 31 44 37 28 36 38 33 20 33.4
Gio Gonzalez (WSH - SP) 63 28 38 45 34 15 25 38 35.8
Marcus Stroman (TOR - SP) 25 32 42 36 47 22 38 47 36.1
Phil Hughes (MIN - SP) 15 31 29 25 39 62 59 40 37.5
Andrew Cashner (SD - SP) 45 53 32 55 28 30 37 35 39.4
Jose Fernandez (MIA - SP) 30 56 30 44 35 53 30 37 39.4
Homer Bailey (CIN - SP) 42 34 33 48 33 49 44 34 39.6
Doug Fister (WSH - SP) 36 38 41 46 41 45 26 48 40.1
Danny Salazar (CLE - SP) 35 43 39 40 38 50 61 42 43.5
Lance Lynn (STL - SP) 60 42 49 50 42 40 45 51 47.4
Zack Wheeler (NYM - SP) 53 59 52 38 52 37 39 52 47.8
Matt Shoemaker (LAA - SP) 43 48 43 39 49 55 56 50 47.9
Francisco Liriano (PIT - SP) 44 45 46 54 67 42 41 46 48.1
Collin McHugh (HOU - SP) 34 49 44 37 70 47 57 49 48.4
Brandon McCarthy (LAD - SP) 19 41 45 41 92 28 63 67 49.5
Ian Kennedy (SD - SP) 51 57 51 56 56 41 43 43 49.8
Yordano Ventura (KC - SP) 54 58 48 51 37 59 51 41 49.9
Scott Kazmir (OAK - SP) 46 51 50 47 51 74 47 44 51.3
Jake Odorizzi (TB - SP) 52 52 55 43 48 54 53 53 51.3
Drew Smyly (TB - SP,RP) 49 37 58 49 64 63 52 54 53.3
Chris Archer (TB - SP) 62 62 59 57 44 64 35 60 55.4
Jose Quintana (CWS - SP) 50 46 53 42 71 68 55 62 55.9
Mat Latos (CIN - SP) 95 40 54 86 46 44 42 45 56.5
Dallas Keuchel (HOU - SP) 73 60 47 61 65 46 50 56 57.3
Rick Porcello (DET - SP) 59 61 60 68 50 48 64 55 58.1
Mike Fiers (MIL - SP,RP) 40 47 62 59 76 65 54 79 60.3
John Lackey (STL - SP) 58 63 73 69 59 51 67 68 63.5
Mike Minor (ATL - SP) 68 64 56 58 53 77 71 70 64.6
Jered Weaver (LAA - SP) 55 66 85 68 79 46 61 65.7
Michael Pineda (NYY - SP) 41 50 57 67 75 81 72 86 66.1
Drew Hutchison (TOR - SP) 67 74 75 52 54 57 58 94 66.4
Yusmeiro Petit (SF - SP) 74 65 72 64 69 56 83 66 68.6
Justin Verlander (DET - SP) 79 71 71 71 72 66 60 63 69.1
Kevin Gausman (BAL - SP) 98 82 76 65 63 58 62 65 71.1
Derek Holland (TEX - SP) 81 78 63 53 45 91 79 85 71.9
Jason Hammel (CHC - SP) 47 66 74 70 103 78 82 59 72.4
Shelby Miller (ATL - SP) 83 73 65 84 58 85 73 72 74.1
Mike Leake (CIN - SP) 66 68 70 82 79 67 75 89 74.5
Henderson Alvarez (MIA - SP) 75 69 88 87 61 49 95 74.9
Justin Masterson (BOS - SP) 85 77 67 83 60 90 80 58 75.0
T.J. House (CLE - SP) 56 67 69 62 84 88 104 76 75.8
Kyle Lohse (MIL - SP) 65 54 78 81 78 99 77 77 76.1
Ervin Santana (ATL - SP) 78 75 68 72 74 98 76 69 76.3
Matt Cain (SF - SP) 80 64 73 55 104 68 93 76.7
James Paxton (SEA - SP) 86 84 77 66 61 75 102 64 76.9
A.J. Burnett (PIT - SP) 69 72 84 90 77 52 78 96 77.3
Chris Tillman (BAL - SP) 97 76 86 88 81 60 65 78 78.9
Tanner Roark (WSH - SP) 91 89 61 63 66 110 84 71 79.4
Clay Buchholz (BOS - SP) 99 87 83 89 62 89 69 57 79.4
Jake Peavy (SF - SP) 70 88 85 74 86 86 97 74 82.5
Carlos Martinez (STL - SP) 92 85 89 60 80 69 89 98 82.8
Jon Niese (NYM - SP) 76 91 80 92 89 81 73 83.1
Wily Peralta (MIL - SP) 87 83 82 79 93 43 114 97 84.8
Trevor Bauer (CLE - SP) 77 93 81 78 90 82 90 91 85.3
Tim Hudson (SF - SP) 71 86 90 77 87 100 98 80 86.1
Wei-Yin Chen (BAL - SP) 72 70 96 76 88 97 110 82 86.4
R.A. Dickey (TOR - SP) 96 98 91 93 73 96 70 75 86.5
Yovani Gallardo (MIL - SP) 80 80 119 84 66 92 86.8
Wade Miley (BOS - SP) 82 92 94 75 57 101 113 81 86.9
Gavin Floyd (CLE - SP) 57 96 79 91 85 121 83 87.4
Jesse Hahn (OAK - SP) 84 94 95 91 76 92 88.7
Matt Garza (MIL - SP) 90 80 97 95 96 106 74 84 90.3
Dan Haren (MIA - SP) 49 90 108 109 100 91.2
Bartolo Colon (NYM - SP) 64 95 99 94 102 99 87 91.4
Nathan Eovaldi (NYY - SP) 97 87 96 92 91 92.6
Dillon Gee (NYM - SP) 94 99 88 93.7
Shane Greene (DET - SP) 88 92 94 105 94.8
Danny Duffy (KC - SP) 100 93 100 88 95.3
Jesse Chavez (OAK - SP) 100 97 97 87 99 96.0
Kyle Hendricks (CHC - SP) 89 81 98 99 95 107 112 90 96.4
J.A. Happ (SEA - SP) 93 99 100 98 98 103 117 100 101.0
Jimmy Nelson (MIL - SP)
Carlos Rodon (CHW - SP)
Drew Pomeranz (OAK - SP)
Tony Cingrani (CIN - SP)
Jared Cosart (MIA - SP)
Jason Vargas (KC - SP)
Alfredo Simon (DET - SP)
CC Sabathia (NYY - SP)
Alan Webster (BOS - SP)
Brandon Beachy (ATL - SP)
AJ Griffin (OAK - SP)
Jorge De La Rosa (COL - SP)
Vance Worley (PIT - SP)
Ruby De La Rosa (ARI - SP)
Kris Medlen (KC - SP)
Ubaldo Jiminez (BAL - SP)
Roenis Elias (SEA - SP)
Miguel Gonzalez (BAL - SP)
Vidal Nuno (ARI - SP)
Robbie Erlin (SD - SP)
Jeff Locke (PIT - SP)



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Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings For 2024 Best Ball Leagues (Tiers 4-9)

We have now entered the process of free agency, which is providing pathways for some wide receivers to seize significant roles in their new landing spots. The player movement that has ensued will also decrease the stock of other receivers whose roles will decrease within their reshaped depth charts. Participation in the best ball draft... Read More


Cade Otton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2024 Best Ball Tight End Sleepers

Top tight ends such as Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce are bound to put up quality fantasy football numbers weekly, but most tight ends are unpredictable. The top tier of tight ends are reliable for fantasy football purposes, but most tight ends are boom-or-bust type of players. Even though it is hard to hit on... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

D'Andre Swift Signs With Bears: Fantasy Football Impact

Newly signed Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift has been one of the most promising, but also underperforming running backs across the NFL and the fantasy landscape in recent years. After three injury-riddled seasons in Detroit where he showed flashes of greatness but didn't quite live up to the hype, Swift was traded to the... Read More


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Top 50 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings After the 2024 NFL Combine

With the NFL Combine in our rearview mirror, now is a logical time to put out an up-to-date rankings for this year’s NFL Draft. Below, you will find my top-50 players who have declared for this NFL Draft. Below those ranks, you will also find several fantasy-relevant notes I have on this class, and on... Read More


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Calvin Ridley Signs With Titans: Fantasy Football Impact

The Tennessee Titans made a huge move once NFL free agency officially opened. They signed wide receiver Calvin Ridley to a four-year, $92 million contract with $50 million fully guaranteed. Ridley was the top receiver on the open market. The Titans swooped in out of left field and signed him to give second-year quarterback Will... Read More