Quarterback Draft Values & Potential ADP Sleepers
Two QB leagues are crazy. I recently drafted one, and the draft almost made no sense to me. It’s contrary to what most of us do, because you want to draft your first quarterback pretty high in the draft. It also means that you could end up with a guy like Reggie Bush on your bench like I did. As I said, it’s pretty unusual compared to other fantasy football formats.
With that being said, I’m going to try to help you find some quarterbacks you can wait a bit on this year. My advice of where to draft them will be based roughly on what round they went in the league that I just drafted, my opinion on how they will perform this year, and how they compared with expert rankings including deeper formats and two-quarterback leagues.
In this article, I will take a look around the NFL and provide analysis on some of my 2014 fantasy football sleeper quarterbacks. As we make our way through the first three weeks of NFL preseason play, this piece will attempt to identify some solid quarterback sleepers to consider on fantasy football draft day. We’ve considered these QBs because of their potential fantasy return, based on your draft-day investment and their current ADPs. Let’s get started, and good luck RotoBallers!
Three QBs That Could Be Your Fantasy Football QB1
Jay Cutler ( CHC, QB12)
In my 2QB league, Cutler went in round 5. But don’t be afraid to take him in the third of the fourth of your 2QB draft. Of course, drafts are a live occurrence and you should always be adaptable. So don’t reach for Cutler if there is other greater value on the board, but feel secure taking him in the those rounds if that’s the way the draft rolls.
To know how much I like Cutler, all you need to do is read my sleeper article. Just to quickly refresh your memory though, he has the best receiving combination in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. He has potentially the best pass catching back in Matt Forte, and the Bears defense is not as good as it has been in years past. There is a new offensive scheme that is in it’s second year, and Cutler seems to be taking to it very well.
What does this all mean? That Cutler should find himself passing for a ton of yards, and you should be comfortable with him being your QB1. Let other guys reach for the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, or Andrew luck. You’ll dominate them with your elite RBs and WRs.
Philip Rivers (SD, QB15)
Like Cutler, Phillip Rivers found himself gone in the 5th round of my 2QB league. He’s not quite as high on my list as Cutler is, but I do expect Rivers to take another step forward this year and is definitely on my list of draft sleepers. Rivers has Keenan Allen, who personally I see as a WR1 and Danny Woodhead who emerged as one of the best pass catching running backs last year.
Antonio Gates may be older, but he should still be good to give his QB some yardage too. Last year Rivers threw for 4,478 yards and had a 69.5 completion percentage, while throwing for 32 TDs and only 11 INT. If he repeats anything like last year, that’ll make him a low end QB1 or high end QB2. In a two-quarterback league, the 5th round is right about where I would take him depending on the board.
Ryan Tannehill (MIA, QB18)
Do yourself a favor and read this article from our own Edward G. to see why I really like Tannehill. Miami has a new offensive coordinator that wants to run an up-tempo offense, and Tannehill has responded pretty well in the preseason so far. Miami also has an improved O-Line, which should give Tannehill a greater chance to succeed and pay dividends on his sleeper draft ADP.
Miami drafted a fairly talented rookie receiving option, and also signed Knowshon Moreno who is a solid pass catching back. As Edward said, last year Tannehill finished as QB11 at the position and I think he has serious upside to grow from there. In my two-QB league, I got him at round 8 as my second quarterback. In that type of format, I could see him being targeted as early as round 6 or round 7.
Three QBs That Could Be Your Fantasy Football QB2
Joe Flacco (BAL, QB22)
Joe Flacco has had some trouble making his wide receivers fantasy relevant on a consistent basis. So why am I recommending him as someone to look at in 2QB leagues?
Well for starters, the Ravens greatly improved their offensive line during the offseason, which should hopefully give Flacco more time in the pocket to setup his passes. Wide receivers Torrey Smith and Steve Smith aren’t too shabby and can certainly hold their own, mixed in with a solid receiving tight end in Dennis Pitta.
Yes, last year Flacco threw more INTs than TDs. But how much of that do you think is because his O-Line wasn’t doing a good job of protecting him? When it’s all said and done with, he still passed for 3,912 yards and 19 TDs. Maybe this is the year that Flacco shows some more for fantasy football owners, and lives up to his NFL contract. In my 2QB league Flacco went at round 10, and that could be a great ADP sleeper value for him in similar formats.
Josh McCown (TB, QB23)
This is the quarterback I took for my bench in my 2QB league. You all know his story by now. He was the backup last year while Jay Cutler was hurt, and he shined for some great performances with the Bears. He especially seemed to love throwing to Alshon Jeffery. Now with Tampa Bay, the Bucs have done their best to replicate the Bears offense to give McCown the tools he needs to succeed as their quarterback.
Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are similar to the tandem of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, in that they are both big tall receivers. The Bucs also spent a third round draft pick on Charles Sims, who has the reputation of a pass catching back, but is injured for a majority of the 2014 season. If McCown is able to produce anything similar to the season he had last year with the Bears, you’ll be happy to have him as your QB2 – or at the very least as your backup for bye weeks. In my 2QB league I got him in round 13, which I feel makes him an ADP value sleeper – but I could see him going as early as round 10 of similar formats.
Geno Smith (NYJ, QB26)
I understand why you might think I’m crazy. Geno just wasn’t that great last year. When his team won he actually did pretty well, but then there were moments like the butt fumble 2.0. However I’m confident that Geno’s numbers can improve this year, and he can emerge as a quarterback sleeper for deeper leagues. Geno now has Eric Decker to throw to, who’s far and away better than any other wide receiver options that Geno had before. He also has Chris Johnson at running back, who he can throw bubble screens to and let him gain a ton of yards after the catch.
Geno could easily turn into a bust, but he has looked pretty good this preseason and his upside is better than some other guys ranked higher than him. In our 2QB league, Geno went at about round 12. That’s about the right place if you’re looking for him to be your bench QB with some upside – but if not then aim for him closer to rounds 10-11.
Thanks for reading everyone. If you want to tell me why I’m right or wrong about any of these QBs, I’d love to hear from you in the comments or @RekedFantasy!