This article is a continuation of RotoBaller’s 2013 fantasy football overrated players series. Today we’ll be taking a look around the NFL at players to avoid at different positions, and give you our fantasy analysis.
2013 Fantasy Football Drafts - Overvalued Players
You could say that every single NFL player can be subjected to an undervalued or overvalued status. That status only depends on one thing - where in your draft you take that player. It's never fun to look back during the season and realize you made one or multiple bad picks during the draft. Here's some players to re-think about, and most likely avoid, for your big draft day.
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): Does Fitzgerald still have some of the best hands in football? Sure he does. Is he still an elite fantasy WR? No way. I think the WR position this season is a dime a dozen. You can really wait until the middle or later part of the draft to find some undervalued wideouts. Right now Fitzgerald's average draft position is 24.6 meaning he's being drafted ahead of guys like Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson and Marques Colston. I would take any of those guys over Fitzgerald. His ADP is absolutely astonishing considering he had 798 yards and only 4 touchdowns last year. Does everyone think Carson Palmer will come in and save the day? Evidently so. I mean Palmer isn't really that bad, he did throw for over 4,000 yards for the Raiders last season, but I don't think he has what it takes to make Fitzgerald a Top 7 fantasy WR by the end of the year so I don't have any idea how someone could draft him before the 4th round. Don't pay retail price for a wholesale product. Let someone else make that mistake this season.
Matt Forte (CHI): Matt's gonna have to do a lot more to prove he's worth the 4 year/$32 Million contract the Bears gave him last year. He'll have to do the same for fantasy owners considering his average draft position is 17.8. Is he really the 17th most valuable player in fantasy football? Judging by his numbers, I would think not. He's only rushed for more than 1,100 yards once in his 5-year career. He's also never posted double-digit touchdown numbers. His real value is with his hands, as Forte averaged 53.4 receptions 465 passing yards over the past 5 seasons. That indicates he might only be worth a pick this high in PPR leagues, but 17.8 is still stretching it a little. Another reason I don't like Forte that much in standard leagues is the dismal performance of the Bears offensive line last year. They did go out and spend a first round pick on Kyle Long out of Oregon and make a big free-agent signing in Jermon Bushrod to play LT. Long has looked great so far in preseason play, but that's doesn't mean much. They are starting two rookies on the right side of the line. The Bears' line definitely has more questions that answers. Speaking of rookies, Forte will be playing for first year coach Marc Trestman. We have yet to see how Trestman will affect Cutler and the rest of the pass-happy offense in 2013. I wouldn't draft Forte before the third round in 10-man standard leagues - and I consider guys like Maurice-Jones Drew, Stevan Ridley and Trent Richardson to be better options than Forte this season. One or two of those guys should still be around in the mid-second round. Draft any of those guys over Forte and you'll thank me later.
Dwayne Bowe (KC): Many many people are buying into Bowe again this season with an average draft position 36.8. That might be the biggest head-scratcher of this whole write-up. Why would you take a WR in the middle of the 4th round who's only had 8 TD the past 2 seasons combined? Like Palmer for Fitzgerald, I think everyone must be feeling that Alex Smith will help Bowe re-create his magical 15 touchdown 2010 season. In Alex Smith's 7 year career, he's never had more than 3,144 yards or 18 touchdowns. I don't really care who the Chiefs bring in at quarterback, Bowe won't be having any season like 2010 the rest of his career. Alex Smith is a game manager, not a strong-armed QB who can throw the ball deep down the field. Look at how the X, or main WR has done on Smith's team the past couple season's. Crabtree in 2010: 55 rec 741 yards 6 TD and 2011: 72 rec 874 yards 4 TD. Once Kaepernick became the 49er QB, Crabtree's production doubled in touchdowns and nearly doubled in yards per game. Don't let Bowe's past success fool you into thinking he's still a Top 12 WR.
If you like this article, check out the rest of our fantasy football analysis: rankings, sleepers, running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks and of course our live fantasy football chat, the best football chatroom on the interwebs. RotoBaller will be releasing more fantasy football content daily to help you prepare for the 2013 NFL Fantasy Football season so stay tuned!