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Back in March, I offered 10 bold predictions for the 2015 fantasy baseball season. Now that we've reached the midway point, it's time to look back and see just how terrible they were.
The Results
1. Joey Votto is a top-five first baseman.
Votto was a monster in April, but has been merely very good since then. While he's not quite top five at the position by the numbers right now, he has definitely proven that he still belongs in the conversation. There remains an outside shot of this one coming true. Not a bad start.
2. Jose Altuve finishes outside the top 10...at second base.
This one looked to be in a lot better shape before Altuve's recent hot streak. However, he's already equaled last season's home run total and remains a quality source of batting average and speed even after declines in those areas from a year ago. Barring injury, he will almost certainly finish in the top 10 at the keystone.
3. Jung-ho Kang hits 25 home runs.
We have our first outright clunker! Kang has been solid but unspectacular as a rookie, and his power simply hasn't translated to this point. The Korean import would need to hit 21 homers from here on out to reach this mark. I'm pretty confident that won't happen.
4. Arismendy Alcantara produces more value than Javier Baez.
Alcantara scored five runs and stole a base before being demoted, whereas Baez hasn't played at the major league level this year. Of course, Alcantara also managed only two singles in 26 at-bats. So you could make the argument that he hurt more than he helped. At this point, it's tough to see either guy getting an opportunity this year. Alcantara can play multiple positions though, which would seemingly make him more likely to see time.
5. Travis d'Arnaud is a top-five catcher.
TDA has been great, slashing .296/.338/.535 with four homers and 17 RBI. Unfortunately, that production has come in only 19 games, as injuries have kept him out of the lineup for most of the season. Health is a skill, and d'Arnaud had a lot of trouble staying on the field during his minor league career as well. Undeniable talent, but this one's not gonna happen.
6. George Springer has a 30/30 season.
Another casualty of injury. Springer was within spitting distance of a 30/30 pace before suffering a broken wrist. He took a weird path to get there. His power was curiously absent in the early going, but he racked up a bunch of steals. When he started hitting homers, the steals vanished. Springer was probably the best hope for baseball's first 30/30 season since 2012. Paul Goldschmidt is actually on a 40/30 pace, but it seems pretty unlikely that he'll actually steal 30 bases. Fun fact: Only two first basemen in MLB history have reached the 30/30 plateau. Jeff Bagwell did it twice in three years back in the late '90s, actually hitting over 40 homers both times. The other guy? Joe Carter in 1987.
7. Bryce Harper is the best player in the National League.
Harper has fulfilled his destiny and currently leads the world in OPS and WAR. Goldschmidt, however, gets the edge in fantasy thanks to his unexpectedly high SB total. Still, I'm counting this one as a moral victory since it correctly predicted that Harper's coming out party would be this year.
8. Julio Teheran finishes outside the top 60 starting pitchers.
Unqualified success here to this point, as Teheran has been even worse than I expected. The troubling trends that emerged last season have continued, as virtually every peripheral is heading in the wrong direction.
9. Taijuan Walker is a top-30 SP.
Walker's horrible start had me writing this one off rather quickly, but he has been dazzling as of late. Walker appears to have focused his efforts on getting first-pitch strikes, and that has paid immediate dividends. He probably still won't make the top 30, but the rookie has a bright future.
10. Brad Boxberger nets more saves than Trevor Rosenthal, Huston Street, and Zach Britton...combined.
Boxberger has certainly enjoyed success in his first go-round as a closer, notching 20 saves despite not being as dominant as he was a year ago. However, the group of closers I chose to pit him against are all ahead of him on the leaderboard. Far from losing their jobs, they've been among the best closers in baseball. A lot had to go right for this one to pan out, so it's hard to be too bummed about it.
Overall, not too shabby! While only one prediction would be true without qualifiers if the season ended today, a few of these are quite close and could still come out in my favor. By my count there are only two abject failures (Kang and Boxberger), and they were the two ballsiest calls on the list.
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